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COLLEGE STATION, Tex (KBTX) – Tuesday Evening Update

Most of the concerning rain and thunderstorm activity has passed or is in the process of moving out of the Brazos Valley, as of 7pm.

The latest from the Weather Prediction Center notes the feature that created today’s active weather is moving east through Leon and Houston Counties.

One more band of rain continues to fall across Lee and Burleson Counties, moving south. As it converges with a stalled boundary near or just north of I-10, there could be a shor-lived concern of more localized, minor flooding in parts of Washington and Austin Counties.

Overall trend is for rain and storms to come to an end by 10pm to midnight.
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Tuesday Afternoon Update

Showers and storms continue to push through the Brazos Valley this afternoon. Flooding could be of concern through the evening, as high rainfall rates embedded within these storms pass through.

The overall threats for severe weather are low in terms of damaging winds, hail and tornadoes. The biggest concern headed into the evening hours is the chance for localized flash flooding. Rainfall totals up to three inches are possible when it’s all said and done, with some localized totals up to five inches possible.
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Mid-afternoon Update: Afternoon showers and storms prompted multiple tornado warnings across the Western Brazos Valley, but most activity is tame and west of Highway 6 mid-afternoon. Additional development is likely, especially west, throughout the afternoon. We’ll now transition to mainly a localized flooding potential, especially across Lee County. Showers and storms may continue into the evening, but the severe threat should diminish as the sun goes down.

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The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded portions of our western counties to a 2/5 risk for severe weather through the afternoon.

This should come as no surprise, considering the ongoing rotating storms in that area. The rest of the area remains in a low, isolated severe risk through the afternoon, but we’ll continue to watch how these storms develop through the afternoon, and update you online and on air if necessary.

11am Update: A Tornado WATCH has been issued for Lee County until 5pm Tuesday.

For right now, it appears the severe weather threat is higher just to the west of the Brazos Valley, where ongoing storms have been producing rotation throughout the morning. We’ll continue to watch how this storm system develops throughout the afternoon.

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With a big helping of gulf moisture and humidity comes out next chance for heavy rain and strong storms across the Brazos Valley Tuesday.

What to watch

A weak disturbance associated with yesterday’s strong storms across West Texas (and this morning’s in the Hill Country) is slowly swirling toward the Brazos Valley early Tuesday. Coupled with the increase in low level moisture, then throw in daytime heating, and we expect a few showers and storms to pop up before the day is done.

Heavy rain and strong wind will be the main impacts with the strongest storms we see today into this evening. As we have already seen this morning to our south and west, an isolated, brief tornado will be possible today.

Timing: Though we have seen some fireworks early, most storms may wait to develop until later this afternoon. Best storm chance will be in the afternoon through early evening.

Rainfall totals could vary wildly, but we won’t rule out a select few receiving 1-3” before the day is done. If a certain area stacks on that amount of rain in a matter of only a couple hours, we’ll need to monitor for a minor flooding threat.

The rest of the week features more scattered afternoon activity, building to our deepest moisture availability and an approaching low this weekend. If scattered rain chances ply out this week, we’ll need to once again watch for a flooding threat for Saturday and Sunday.

Bottom line: keep tuned to the forecast. We’ll be updating constantly as we get more data.



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